2024 House · Montana
MSU - Billings · fieldwork ended 2024-10-16 (20 days before the election) · 326 respondents · Live Phone/Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 37% · Republican 44%
R+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.62% · Republican 52.30%
R+7.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 37 − 44 = -7.00
- Actual margin = 44.616 − 52.295 = -7.679
- Signed miss = -7.00 − (-7.679) = 0.679
- Absolute miss = |0.679| = 0.679
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89041, race ID 9771 (538 database).
population: a