2024 President · Arizona
CES / YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-25 (11 days before the election) · 2,077 respondents · Online Matched Sample
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 49%
even
The certified result
Democrat 46.69% · Republican 52.22%
R+5.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 49 = 0.00
- Actual margin = 46.690 − 52.217 = -5.527
- Signed miss = 0.00 − (-5.527) = 5.527
- Absolute miss = |5.527| = 5.527
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.5 points and showed a tie.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89043, race ID 8759 (538 database).
This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: a