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2024 President · Florida

CES / YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-25 (11 days before the election) · 5,952 respondents · Online Matched Sample

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 51%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.99% · Republican 56.09%

R+13.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 51 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.988 − 56.088 = -13.100
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-13.100) = 9.100
  4. Absolute miss = |9.100| = 9.100

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89044, race ID 8778 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

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