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2024 President · Michigan

CES / YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-25 (11 days before the election) · 2,347 respondents · Online Matched Sample

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 45%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.31% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 45 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.313 − 49.727 = -1.414
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (-1.414) = 8.414
  4. Absolute miss = |8.414| = 8.414

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89046, race ID 8820 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: a