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2024 President · North Carolina

CES / YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-25 (11 days before the election) · 2,330 respondents · Online Matched Sample

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 48%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.65% · Republican 50.86%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 48 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.645 − 50.857 = -3.212
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-3.212) = 4.212
  4. Absolute miss = |4.212| = 4.212

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89050, race ID 8839 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

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