2024 President · Texas
CES / YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-25 (11 days before the election) · 6,526 respondents · Online Matched Sample
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 51%
R+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.46% · Republican 56.14%
R+13.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 51 = -4.00
- Actual margin = 42.457 − 56.140 = -13.683
- Signed miss = -4.00 − (-13.683) = 9.683
- Absolute miss = |9.683| = 9.683
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89053, race ID 8889 (538 database).
This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: a