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2024 President · Ohio

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 1,127 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Opt-In Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 45.6% · Republican 51.7%

R+6.1

The certified result

Democrat 43.93% · Republican 55.14%

R+11.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.6 − 51.7 = -6.10
  2. Actual margin = 43.928 − 55.136 = -11.208
  3. Signed miss = -6.10 − (-11.208) = 5.107
  4. Absolute miss = |5.107| = 5.107

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89067, race ID 8863 (538 database).

population: lv