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2024 Senate · Ohio

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 1,127 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Opt-In Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 47.2%

D+0.8

The certified result

Democrat 46.47% · Republican 50.09%

R+3.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 47.2 = 0.80
  2. Actual margin = 46.470 − 50.089 = -3.619
  3. Signed miss = 0.80 − (-3.619) = 4.419
  4. Absolute miss = |4.419| = 4.419

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89067, race ID 9526 (538 database).

population: lv