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2024 House · New York

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 475 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 48.6%

R+4.6

The certified result

Democrat 45.82% · Republican 52.13%

R+6.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 48.6 = -4.60
  2. Actual margin = 45.822 − 52.132 = -6.310
  3. Signed miss = -4.60 − (-6.310) = 1.710
  4. Absolute miss = |1.710| = 1.710

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89070, race ID 9814 (538 database).

population: lv