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2024 House · New York

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 51.3% · Republican 41.6%

D+9.7

The certified result

Democrat 57.13% · Republican 42.79%

D+14.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.3 − 41.6 = 9.70
  2. Actual margin = 57.131 − 42.793 = 14.338
  3. Signed miss = 9.70 − (14.338) = -4.638
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.638| = 4.638

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89071, race ID 9815 (538 database).

population: lv