2024 Senate · California
YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-17 (19 days before the election) · 1,139 respondents · Online Matched Sample
The poll said
Democrat 56% · Republican 35%
D+21.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.87% · Republican 41.13%
D+17.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 56 − 35 = 21.00
- Actual margin = 58.873 − 41.127 = 17.746
- Signed miss = 21.00 − (17.746) = 3.255
- Absolute miss = |3.255| = 3.255
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89072, race ID 9506 (538 database).
population: rv