2024 House · Nebraska
YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 406 respondents · Online Matched Sample
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 53%
R+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 39.90% · Republican 60.10%
R+20.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 53 = -14.00
- Actual margin = 39.896 − 60.104 = -20.208
- Signed miss = -14.00 − (-20.208) = 6.208
- Absolute miss = |6.208| = 6.208
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89078, race ID 9773 (538 database).
population: lv