2024 House · Nebraska
YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 389 respondents · Online Matched Sample
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 46%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.07% · Republican 50.93%
R+1.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 46 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 49.073 − 50.927 = -1.854
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (-1.854) = 5.853
- Absolute miss = |5.853| = 5.853
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.9 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89078, race ID 9774 (538 database).
population: lv