2024 House · Nebraska
YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 404 respondents · Online Matched Sample
The poll said
Democrat 22% · Republican 68%
R+46.0
The certified result
Democrat 19.58% · Republican 80.42%
R+60.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 22 − 68 = -46.00
- Actual margin = 19.582 − 80.418 = -60.836
- Signed miss = -46.00 − (-60.836) = 14.837
- Absolute miss = |14.837| = 14.837
The poll overstated the Democrat by 14.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89078, race ID 9775 (538 database).
population: lv