2024 Senate · New Jersey
Fairleigh Dickinson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 806 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web
The poll said
Democrat 57% · Republican 39%
D+18.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.61% · Republican 43.99%
D+9.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 57 − 39 = 18.00
- Actual margin = 53.611 − 43.990 = 9.621
- Signed miss = 18.00 − (9.621) = 8.379
- Absolute miss = |8.379| = 8.379
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89079, race ID 9522 (538 database).
population: rv