2024 Senate · Michigan
Suffolk · fieldwork ended 2024-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47.2% · Republican 45.4%
D+1.8
The certified result
Democrat 48.64% · Republican 48.30%
D+0.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47.2 − 45.4 = 1.80
- Actual margin = 48.639 − 48.298 = 0.341
- Signed miss = 1.80 − (0.341) = 1.459
- Absolute miss = |1.459| = 1.459
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89082, race ID 9515 (538 database).
population: lv