2024 Senate · New Jersey
Rutgers-Eagleton · fieldwork ended 2024-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 478 respondents · Probability Panel
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 12%
D+32.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.61% · Republican 43.99%
D+9.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 12 = 32.00
- Actual margin = 53.611 − 43.990 = 9.621
- Signed miss = 32.00 − (9.621) = 22.379
- Absolute miss = |22.379| = 22.379
The poll overstated the Democrat by 22.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89084, race ID 9522 (538 database).
This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: rv