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2024 President · Washington

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 59.1% · Republican 40.9%

D+18.2

The certified result

Democrat 57.23% · Republican 39.01%

D+18.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 59.1 − 40.9 = 18.20
  2. Actual margin = 57.229 − 39.011 = 18.218
  3. Signed miss = 18.20 − (18.218) = -0.018
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.018| = 0.018

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89085, race ID 8902 (538 database).

population: lv