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2024 Governor · Washington

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 58.6% · Republican 41.4%

D+17.2

The certified result

Democrat 55.51% · Republican 44.28%

D+11.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58.6 − 41.4 = 17.20
  2. Actual margin = 55.508 − 44.280 = 11.228
  3. Signed miss = 17.20 − (11.228) = 5.972
  4. Absolute miss = |5.972| = 5.972

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89085, race ID 9546 (538 database).

population: lv