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2024 House · Michigan

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 535 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 44.8% · Republican 47.3%

R+2.5

The certified result

Democrat 46.56% · Republican 50.28%

R+3.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.8 − 47.3 = -2.50
  2. Actual margin = 46.563 − 50.281 = -3.718
  3. Signed miss = -2.50 − (-3.718) = 1.218
  4. Absolute miss = |1.218| = 1.218

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89087, race ID 9744 (538 database).

population: lv