2024 President · national
TIPP · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 1,302 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 48.3% · Republican 47.5%
D+0.8
The certified result
Democrat 48.33% · Republican 49.80%
R+1.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48.3 − 47.5 = 0.80
- Actual margin = 48.326 − 49.798 = -1.472
- Signed miss = 0.80 − (-1.472) = 2.272
- Absolute miss = |2.272| = 2.272
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89090, race ID 8914 (538 database).
This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: lv
actual: national share computed from summed statewide votes