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2024 Senate · Pennsylvania

Monmouth · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 824 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 44%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.60% · Republican 48.82%

R+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 44 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.601 − 48.818 = -0.217
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-0.217) = 1.217
  4. Absolute miss = |1.217| = 1.217

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89098, race ID 9527 (538 database).

population: rv