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2024 President · Wisconsin

CNN/SSRS · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 736 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web/Email/Mail-to-Web/Mail-to-Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 45%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 49.60%

R+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 45 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.737 − 49.596 = -0.859
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (-0.859) = 6.859
  4. Absolute miss = |6.859| = 6.859

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89101, race ID 8905 (538 database).

population: lv