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2024 President · Pennsylvania

Susquehanna · fieldwork ended 2024-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 45.8%

D+0.2

The certified result

Democrat 48.66% · Republican 50.37%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 45.8 = 0.20
  2. Actual margin = 48.663 − 50.373 = -1.710
  3. Signed miss = 0.20 − (-1.710) = 1.910
  4. Absolute miss = |1.910| = 1.910

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89102, race ID 8872 (538 database).

population: lv