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2024 President · Michigan

Beacon/Shaw · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 1,275 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.31% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.313 − 49.727 = -1.414
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (-1.414) = 5.414
  4. Absolute miss = |5.414| = 5.414

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89110, race ID 8820 (538 database).

This poll asked 4 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv