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2024 President · Utah

Noble Predictive Insights · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 695 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 54%

R+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.79% · Republican 59.38%

R+21.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 54 = -20.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.794 − 59.377 = -21.583
  3. Signed miss = -20.00 − (-21.583) = 1.582
  4. Absolute miss = |1.582| = 1.582

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89111, race ID 8892 (538 database).

population: lv