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2024 Senate · Michigan

University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-24 (12 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Matched Sample

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 39%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.64% · Republican 48.30%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 39 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.639 − 48.298 = 0.341
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (0.341) = 8.659
  4. Absolute miss = |8.659| = 8.659

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89116, race ID 9515 (538 database).

population: lv