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2024 Governor · New Hampshire

University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-23 (13 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Matched Sample

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 45%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.27% · Republican 53.61%

R+9.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 45 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.272 − 53.611 = -9.339
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-9.339) = 7.339
  4. Absolute miss = |7.339| = 7.339

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89117, race ID 9542 (538 database).

population: lv