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2024 Governor · North Carolina

University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov · fieldwork ended 2024-10-23 (13 days before the election) · 650 respondents · Online Matched Sample

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 36%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.90% · Republican 40.08%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 36 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.895 − 40.084 = 14.811
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (14.811) = -2.811
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.811| = 2.811

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89118, race ID 9502 (538 database).

population: lv