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2024 President · Colorado

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 56.6% · Republican 43.4%

D+13.2

The certified result

Democrat 54.13% · Republican 43.14%

D+11.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56.6 − 43.4 = 13.20
  2. Actual margin = 54.128 − 43.143 = 10.985
  3. Signed miss = 13.20 − (10.985) = 2.215
  4. Absolute miss = |2.215| = 2.215

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89122, race ID 8765 (538 database).

population: lv