2024 President · Michigan
Mitchell · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · sample size not reported · method not reported
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 48%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.31% · Republican 49.73%
R+1.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 48 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 48.313 − 49.727 = -1.414
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-1.414) = 0.414
- Absolute miss = |0.414| = 0.414
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89123, race ID 8820 (538 database).
population: lv