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2024 President · Massachusetts

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 66.3% · Republican 33.7%

D+32.6

The certified result

Democrat 61.22% · Republican 36.02%

D+25.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 66.3 − 33.7 = 32.60
  2. Actual margin = 61.219 − 36.023 = 25.196
  3. Signed miss = 32.60 − (25.196) = 7.404
  4. Absolute miss = |7.404| = 7.404

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89124, race ID 8811 (538 database).

population: lv