2024 Senate · Massachusetts
ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel
The poll said
Democrat 63.1% · Republican 36.9%
D+26.2
The certified result
Democrat 59.81% · Republican 40.00%
D+19.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 63.1 − 36.9 = 26.20
- Actual margin = 59.815 − 40.003 = 19.812
- Signed miss = 26.20 − (19.812) = 6.388
- Absolute miss = |6.388| = 6.388
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89124, race ID 9514 (538 database).
population: lv