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2024 President · Maryland

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 63.5% · Republican 36.5%

D+27.0

The certified result

Democrat 62.62% · Republican 34.08%

D+28.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 63.5 − 36.5 = 27.00
  2. Actual margin = 62.619 − 34.083 = 28.536
  3. Signed miss = 27.00 − (28.536) = -1.536
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.536| = 1.536

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89126, race ID 8814 (538 database).

population: lv