2024 President · Michigan
Echelon Insights · fieldwork ended 2024-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 47%
even
The certified result
Democrat 48.31% · Republican 49.73%
R+1.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
- Actual margin = 48.313 − 49.727 = -1.414
- Signed miss = 0.00 − (-1.414) = 1.414
- Absolute miss = |1.414| = 1.414
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.4 points and showed a tie.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89138, race ID 8820 (538 database).
This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: lv