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2024 President · Pennsylvania

Echelon Insights · fieldwork ended 2024-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 51%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.66% · Republican 50.37%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 51 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.663 − 50.373 = -1.710
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-1.710) = -3.290
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.290| = 3.290

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89139, race ID 8872 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv