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2024 Senate · Arizona

Noble Predictive Insights · fieldwork ended 2024-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 775 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 44%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.06% · Republican 47.65%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 44 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.058 − 47.652 = 2.406
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (2.406) = 1.594
  4. Absolute miss = |1.594| = 1.594

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89152, race ID 9505 (538 database).

population: lv