2024 President · Virginia
Roanoke College · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 851 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 41%
D+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.82% · Republican 46.06%
D+5.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 41 = 10.00
- Actual margin = 51.824 − 46.057 = 5.767
- Signed miss = 10.00 − (5.767) = 4.234
- Absolute miss = |4.234| = 4.234
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89157, race ID 8895 (538 database).
population: lv