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2024 President · Maine

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 1,079 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 43%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.40% · Republican 45.46%

D+6.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 43 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.401 − 45.464 = 6.937
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (6.937) = 1.063
  4. Absolute miss = |1.063| = 1.063

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89158, race ID 8817 (538 database).

population: lv