2024 House · Maine
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 482 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 60% · Republican 28%
D+32.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.70% · Republican 36.39%
D+22.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 60 − 28 = 32.00
- Actual margin = 58.703 − 36.390 = 22.313
- Signed miss = 32.00 − (22.313) = 9.687
- Absolute miss = |9.687| = 9.687
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89158, race ID 9719 (538 database).
population: lv