Skip to content

2024 President · Pennsylvania

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2024-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 1,558 respondents · Live Phone/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 47%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.66% · Republican 50.37%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 47 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.663 − 50.373 = -1.710
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (-1.710) = 5.710
  4. Absolute miss = |5.710| = 5.710

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89160, race ID 8872 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv