2024 Senate · Michigan
EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 42%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.64% · Republican 48.30%
D+0.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 42 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 48.639 − 48.298 = 0.341
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (0.341) = 4.659
- Absolute miss = |4.659| = 4.659
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89163, race ID 9515 (538 database).
population: lv