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2024 House · California

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 574 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 38%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.17% · Republican 47.83%

D+4.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 38 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.174 − 47.826 = 4.348
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (4.348) = 8.653
  4. Absolute miss = |8.653| = 8.653

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89164, race ID 9995 (538 database).

population: lv