2024 President · national
TIPP · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 1,249 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 49%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.33% · Republican 49.80%
R+1.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 49 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 48.326 − 49.798 = -1.472
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-1.472) = 0.472
- Absolute miss = |0.472| = 0.472
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89165, race ID 8914 (538 database).
This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: lv
actual: national share computed from summed statewide votes