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2024 Governor · North Carolina

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 57.6% · Republican 42.4%

D+15.2

The certified result

Democrat 54.90% · Republican 40.08%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57.6 − 42.4 = 15.20
  2. Actual margin = 54.895 − 40.084 = 14.811
  3. Signed miss = 15.20 − (14.811) = 0.389
  4. Absolute miss = |0.389| = 0.389

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89173, race ID 9502 (538 database).

population: lv