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2024 Senate · Pennsylvania

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50.5% · Republican 49.5%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.60% · Republican 48.82%

R+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.5 − 49.5 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.601 − 48.818 = -0.217
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-0.217) = 1.217
  4. Absolute miss = |1.217| = 1.217

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89174, race ID 9527 (538 database).

population: lv