Skip to content

2024 Senate · Wisconsin

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53.6% · Republican 46.4%

D+7.2

The certified result

Democrat 49.33% · Republican 48.48%

D+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53.6 − 46.4 = 7.20
  2. Actual margin = 49.333 − 48.484 = 0.849
  3. Signed miss = 7.20 − (0.849) = 6.351
  4. Absolute miss = |6.351| = 6.351

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89176, race ID 9534 (538 database).

population: lv