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2024 Senate · Arizona

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54.3% · Republican 45.7%

D+8.6

The certified result

Democrat 50.06% · Republican 47.65%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54.3 − 45.7 = 8.60
  2. Actual margin = 50.058 − 47.652 = 2.406
  3. Signed miss = 8.60 − (2.406) = 6.194
  4. Absolute miss = |6.194| = 6.194

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89177, race ID 9505 (538 database).

population: lv