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2024 Senate · Minnesota

ActiVote · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 400 respondents · App Panel

The poll said

Democrat 56.4% · Republican 43.6%

D+12.8

The certified result

Democrat 56.20% · Republican 40.50%

D+15.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56.4 − 43.6 = 12.80
  2. Actual margin = 56.201 − 40.501 = 15.700
  3. Signed miss = 12.80 − (15.700) = -2.900
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.900| = 2.900

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89178, race ID 9516 (538 database).

population: lv