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2024 Senate · Nevada

Susquehanna · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 400 respondents · method not reported

The poll said

Democrat 46.2% · Republican 47%

R+0.8

The certified result

Democrat 47.87% · Republican 46.22%

D+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.2 − 47 = -0.80
  2. Actual margin = 47.866 − 46.223 = 1.643
  3. Signed miss = -0.80 − (1.643) = -2.443
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.443| = 2.443

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89182, race ID 9521 (538 database).

population: lv